June Job Predictions Run High

• Author: Bryan Miller
• Posted: 2024-02-08

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly jobs report is undoubtedly one of the nation's best barometers of how the economy is going and how well things might go in the future. As of April, however, things are looking pretty bleak. While it was marginally better than June, the fact is that a Biden presidency has all but reversed the trends we witnessed under the Trump presidency. That is not a statement of political favoritism or chastising one while praising the other. It is merely a reflection of the hard statistical data which claim one thing: Job growth has slowed down tremendously since January.

Though the good news here, at least since January, is that April's jobs report seems to be a step up from March's report. Economists are very hopeful as to what this might mean for the future. With around two dozen states planning to do away with the $300/weekly federal unemployment supplement, and with almost all 50 states opening their economies back up, experts predict that jobs numbers may spike dramatically during the month of June. Of course, this is only a prediction, so take it with a grain of salt. We won't know anything one way or the other until the end of the first week of May anyway. But many economic experts are claiming that all the tell-tale signs are present.

For instance, when the Trump administration was still in office and we had months of millions of net gains in employment, some of the signs included consumer confidence and new businesses opening. We are starting to see a lot of this around the nation now. Like it or not, a lot of the nation slowed down when President Biden took office for fear that he may put the lock-downs back in place and really emphasize the idea to states that they need to remain closed.

To Biden's credit, he's basically stepped aside and has allowed for states to govern themselves. Other than some often harsh rhetoric tweeted out about vaccines and distancing, his administration has made no efforts to regulate states from a federal position. This is inspiring confidence in a lot of states, allowing them to really loosen their restrictions, which is causing some new businesses to open. Of course, as new businesses open, new jobs come open and people typically file in to fill them.

The only wrench in the program here is something that many economic experts are claiming is baffling to them. More and more people are opting out of work. Of course, some argue that the problem is axiomatic. With an average of $300 a week in state unemployment, and with an extra $300 a week in federal supplemental unemployment, someone without a job is receiving a no-questions-asked sum of $600 per week. To put this into context, the average person must gross roughly $1,100 per week to net $600, which means that people who are unemployed are getting free from the government a higher wage than middle-class Americans earn.

One would have to earn the equivalent of $55,000 a year to make $600 (after taxes) net a week, according to the math, and most people who had jobs pre-pandemic were certainly not making that much. So, the fact that these unemployment benefits are so lucrative has been stalling the job growth in America, according to many.

The good news is that some states are doing away with the federal supplement, as mentioned above, which many experts believe is going to light the proverbial fire under people and hammer home the message to them that they need to return to work. Luckily for them, there are going to be more than enough positions available, as this month's jobs report indicates a labor shortage, which means there's an over-abundance of jobs yet not enough Americans willing to fill them.

Experts Weigh In On Issue

One must always be careful about what the experts say. When the housing crisis of 2008 happened, a vast majority of economists for years prior stated that there was no such thing as a housing bubble, and that sub-prime mortgages encouraging home ownership was actually a good thing. We don't have to shame them for being so woefully wrong, but we can acknowledge that they're not psychics.

To that end, it's important to focus not on what predictions claim but rather to focus on what's happening right before your eyes. As an American, you can see the state of the economy; you can feel the friction. Some people claim that one of the best things you can do is to support your local economies. Get away from online ordering and mega corporations and go support your local businesses. Help them profit, so they can hire and pay employees, and America's issues will start resolving themselves one community at a time.