Mixed Bag for Jobless Claims as COVID-19 Continues to Rage Across US

• Author: Chris Remington
• Posted: 2024-07-01

Just when the job picture seems to be getting better, a new jobless claims report shows that American workers are filing for unemployment in increasing amounts. Here is what you need to know about the current job picture and who is feeling the hurt the most.

The Latest Numbers

According to the latest jobless claims report for the week ending October 10, approximately 898,000 new filings were listed last week. This number is the highest amount since August 22, signifying that the job picture is not rebounding as many government officials had predicted would happen when the country began to open up again.

A recent survey of economists by Dow Jones predicted that this number would be around 830,000. This number is a gain of 53,000 from last week's 845,000. Clearly, economists want the number to be sliding in the other direction as more areas of the country continue to go full speed ahead with reopening plans.

The Good News

The news is not all bad. While new claims came in much higher than expected, continuing claims are continuing their downward trajectory. The week's numbers fell by 1.165 million to land at a little over 10 million. It is important to note that the data of continuing claims runs one week behind the new claims figure.

Another bit of good news is that those individuals filing for first-time benefits under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program are also declining. The total number fell over 91,000 to come in at 372,981. This particular program delivers benefits to those who would not normally be eligible for traditional unemployment. This includes workers such as freelancers and independent contractors.

Those filing for unemployment under this program account for over half of the total recipients as of September 26, signifying that these independent workers are hurting badly as the pandemic rages on. While many large corporations are starting to bring back their full-time employees, the contract workers are being left out in the cold.

The Big Picture

When looking at the weekly numbers, it is also important to examine the big picture. The economy has brought back 11.4 million positions since the pandemic first took root in March. This accounts for roughly half of those who were lost their jobs during the initial shutdown. While the unemployment rate has been reduced to 7.9%, this is still more than double what it was in February before the virus arrived in the US. The highest unemployment rate over this time period was 14.7%, set in April during the height of the shutdown.

The four-week moving average of continuing claims also dropped by 682,250 to settle at 11.48 million. In addition, the insured unemployment rate fell almost one percentage point to 6.8%. This figure compares those individuals receiving benefits to the entire labor force.

Job Insecurity and Financial Stress Continues to Affect Minority Groups the Most

While the COVID-19 health crisis is causing angst and worry across a wide spectrum of people, the research is clear that minority groups are feeling the pain the worst. The dire unemployment situation is disproportionately affecting lower-income groups at much higher rates. This is particularly true for those workers who do not have jobs that are able to be performed remotely.

Hispanics and Blacks are reporting the most concern about being able to find a job. 58% of Hispanic/Latinos said that they had work-related concerns, compared to 54% of Blacks and 45% of Whites. The biggest reported worry for people in these minority groups was not having the skills to be able to compete in this competitive and rapidly changing job market.

These worries are not without data backing them up. According to September's unemployment report, Blacks were seeing rates at 12.1% and Hispanics at 10.3%. Meanwhile, the White rate was only 7%, highlighting the wide disparity between ethnic groups.

The job picture will continue to be affected by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported throughout the country. A highly contentious presidential election may also fuel economic uncertainty, leading to a volatile job market moving into the winter months. As with everything related to this virus, there is no predicting what may happen in the months ahead.