Predicting the Big Winners and the Big Losers in the COVID-19 Job Crisis

• Author: Kelly Cooke
• Posted: 2024-02-22

The employment world has been turned upside down in recent months as a result of the devastating COVID-19 global pandemic. Millions of Americans have lost their jobs because of the economic shutdown, resulting in unemployment levels reaching all-time highs. It is important to point out that not all industries have been affected evenly. Here are a few industries that are expected to come back or flourish along with a few predictions on what jobs are in trouble in the future.

Jobs That Will Likely Return to Normal Levels

• Restaurants - Even if consumers are not keen on the idea of visiting restaurants to eat onsite, they are still giving the businesses their money through takeout and delivery options. Although business is down in restaurants that have not been able to adapt their business model to this rapidly changing situation, it is clear that it is possible for the industry to survive if the right changes are made. As more states open up again, these jobs will likely come back and reach their pre-COVID levels of employment. Until then, it is still possible for them to operate in a different capacity.
  
  In February, the American restaurant industry boasted an employment figure of 12.3 million. By April, this number was down to 6.2 million, reflecting the need for most restaurants to move to a takeout and delivery business model. Since April's low, the industry has made up 47% of its workforce. The June jobs report had the number of people working in the industry at 9.2 million. While this figure is still a few million short of the pre-COVID numbers, it is headed in the right direction and likely to keep on increasing as more states loosen restrictions on restaurant capacity.



• Couriers and Messengers - Even when the business of the country returns to normal levels, people will likely rely heavily on couriers and messengers. Many consumers that did not use e-commerce prior to the pandemic quickly realized the convenience of this option, changing the way that they shop forever. For example, an individual who had never tried online grocery shopping and delivery until it became a necessity during the pandemic now understands the great convenience of this option. This awareness will only serve to continue to fuel the growth of this industry even after people are not confined to their homes.
  
  The numbers speak for themselves. According to the US Labor Department, the courier and messenger industry employed 859,000 people in January. Rather than losing jobs, this industry saw a slight uptick during the first few months of the pandemic. By April, 861,000 were working in the industry. This figure increased even further in June with 904,000 jobs.
  

Jobs That Will Likely Not Return to Normal Levels

• Retail and Clothing - The brick and mortar retail industry had already been in trouble years before the COVID-19 crisis hit. This pandemic may be the nail in the coffin for the struggling apparel retail sector. While the June jobs report showed an additional 202,000 positions added back for the month, this number is still down 40% when compared to last year at this time. As consumers cut back on leisure activities, fancy vacations, and professional expenditures, they will also likely spend less on apparel.



• Personal and Laundry Services - Related to the retail sector is personal and laundry services. With millions of Americans now working from home for the foreseeable future, it is not likely that the personal and laundry services sector returns to normal levels anytime soon. Included in this industry are hairstylists, nail technicians, pet care services, and dry cleaners. Without the need to dress up and leave the house every day, there is a markedly decreased demand for these types of services. As long as employers continue to encourage their workers to telecommute, the demand for this industry is not going to increase.
  

Clearly, this is an evolving situation with no guidebook to follow. Because of this, it is impossible to predict what these industries will look like in six months, one year, or five years. However, the shift to remote work combined with an increased reliance on delivery services with less interaction socially makes it easy to discern who will come out on top and who will be the losers on the job front.